That rise occur, the balance would be broken. That does not happen is the goal of the first leaders from around the world will gather at year-end in Paris.
El Litoral
Caty Arevalo – EFE
Leaders from around the world meet later this year in Paris to reach a global agreement to combat climate change with an objective: that the earth’s temperature not rising more than two degrees by the end of the century about to the pre-industrial era (before 1880).
Understanding the keys to the most famous and desired in environmental terms global goal requires answering several questions, starting with why it is negative the temperature rises ., especially in very cold areas of the world where it might be, a priori, something welcomed
The British physicist prestigious professor of the American Institute of Santa Fe Geoffrey West offers Efe a simple explanation: “All the planet works by chemical reactions. The chemical reactions are temperature dependent, so that by altering the temperature you change the chemical reactions and thus the equilibrium of the planet “. “Breaking the balance would lead to disaster,” he added.
A study by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Julia Carlo Jaeger determines that the first stood at two degrees that “break” in the planetary balance was Professor William Nordhaus of Yale.
In two articles published in the 70 Norhabus stated that to avoid the worst impacts of climate change temperature should not increase more than two degrees, after data signed by the relevant scientific and officially assumed aim of the international climate negotiations in the Climate Summit in Cancun (Mexico) in 2010.
“The figure is not magic, it is a considerable amount when you consider that the average global temperature is 15 degrees,” he told Efe the Spanish professor and vice president of the group Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the UN, José Manuel Moreno.
As part of “a change and consequent risk”, scientists have made an assessment of what is “possible and desirable” and determined by consensus that two degrees is what can be taken “without the consequences are unbearable,” says Moreno.
“This figure is simply the level considered will not be of sufficient magnitude to jeopardize our existence and that of the agencies around us beyond accepted by everyone,” he added.
And is that a world with two degrees will suffer a huge amount of impact, “but still be manageable and manageable with adaptation actions,” said Efe the prestigious American scientist candidate to chair the IPCC, Christopher Field.
The climatologists agree that two degrees is still possible to “stabilize” the planet, although they are also in agreement that this limit will not prevent small islands from becoming uninhabitable by rising sea levels, extreme weather events more frequent and intense or has massive displacement, especially in coastal areas.
The latest IPCC report says we’ve already warmed 0.85 degrees above the pre-industrial era, and another study published by the World Bank in 2014 said the CO2 emitted and will raise this figure to 1.5 degrees.
No one doubts that keep the planet in no more than two degrees will require a major commitment of all nations for deep decarbonization, which will require global emissions to be reduced by between 40 and 70% half century and they are zero at the end, according to the IPCC.
The effort required is enormous and that at current rates would overcome the two degrees by 2050 and “warming could exceed four degrees “in 2100, says Moreno.
So that everyone understands why can not exceed this limit, the atmospheric scientist at Texas Tech University Katharine Hayhoe draws a parallel with the snuff: “How many cigarettes cause cancer? Nobody knows exactly how many, but the more you smoke the greater the risk. On climate change exceed two degrees is entering a highly risky territory. “
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